Merkel's Soil and Green Solution

A few days before the big elections in Germany and the Anglophone weekly magazine The Economist offers a ringing endorsement for Chancellor Angela Merkel. Argument: The continuation of the present coalition (CDU/CSU and FDP) is the best solution for Germany and consequently for Europe. A strong Germany leading the Union into a better future, because Germany, after all, is the glorious haven of financial and economic stability in a turbulent sea of socio-economic devastation.

National Election Chaos - A Wake and the Chance of new Beginning

Well, they stuck with Mutti. She scored 41,5 %. Not an absolute majority, but close. A ringing endorsement to continue with her strategy: austerity measures, no great reforms, slowing down to a crawl, stagnation? She and her CDU/CSU (Union) followers take the spectacular success as evidence enough - Germany is on the right track, consequently so is Europe. Now, it's time to find a partner which proofs to be rather difficult. Germans have spoken, and punished Mrs. Merkel's favorite coalition partner the FDP (Free Democratic Party). The post-war fixture was voted out and many see it as punishment for the past four years of political mistakes, clientele politics, dubious donations, broken promises and personnel battles which culminated in the forced resignation of Guido Westerwelle (Foreign Minister). Combined with Merkel's popularity, these factors condemned the former partner to political isolation. Now, she has tried and tango with either the Green Party who appears quite unwilling or the SPD (Social Democrats) who have learned their lesson in 2009.

Germans have not quite forgotten the last time a grand coalition ruled over the country:  retirement at the age of 67 and the value-added tax was raised by 3% to 19%. While Mrs. Merkel profited from the partnership, the SPD was severely punished during the national elections in 2009 - worst result ever. This time round they are more cautious, less enthusiastic about sharing Mrs. Markel’s power. Well, last week they reached 27,5 %, the second worst result since the end of World War II. Their downfall started with Merkel's predecessor, Gerhardt Schörder and his AGENDA 2010, back in the day the conservatives were in the opposition and Mrs. Merkel not even a candidate. It turns out the SPD (Social Democrats) government under Chancellor Schröder and his Green Party decuples were even more conservative than their opposition.

The reforms of the labor market and social system turned out to be successful only for the Haves.

Past, Present and Future

On the other side of the coin - the Have-Nots became a new social class, with a new Latinate name - "Prekriat". Etymologically speaking, it comes from the French adjective "pécaire i.e. the endangered ones, on a social ladder they find themselves even beneath Marx's proletariat, at least in terms of financial stability, social acceptance, opportunities for social climbing, education etc.  They are the ones who make € 1- 5,50 an hour or € 500 - 800 a month. Post-Agenda 2010 people who have work no longer earn enough money to make a living of it. Of course we could argue the unemployment rate in Germany is at an all-time low, at least in comparison with Greece and Spain, Germans have little to bemoan. Again this is only scratching the surface. Beneath the veneer of economic soundness and the "better than ever" government propaganda the unemployment statistics are "corrected".

There is a difference between "unemployed" and "looking for employment". If you are unemployed, you are out of a job. If  you are "looking for a job", you are equally on the dole, however the Arbeitsagentur/ Job Centre put your name down for so called "Arbeitsbeschaffungsmaßnahmen" - occupational therapy: The program 6000 steps around the Alster is supposed to motivate you for finding a job. In reality it’s one of those waste-of-money-and-time program, each participant costs an additional € 6000, but officially every job center marathon man is no longer unemployed and no longer in the statistics. The Germany, the first female Chancellor rules over is an economically sound country, where nothing needs improvement, at least according to the posters, advertisements, web spots of her election campaign. She knows minimum wages are bad for business. She knows it because, the DAX index plummets, the speculators in Frankfurt get nervous when politicians use the word.

Education, Minijobs, old-age poverty , "Fördern und fordern"-slogans, impoverishment and the continuation of Harz IV as institutionalized poverty, ecology, renewable energy, an educational reform etc. all of these topics were once upon a time presented as "Kanzlersache" (an important issue on the agenda of the Chancellor) - the promise she would personally work on finding a solution. Her policy of small steps, however, meant in the end nothing would change.

The Majority - the non-voter - has spoken

If one dares to include those who refused to cast their vote, the majority shift is extreme: they are the true rulers of Germany, the disenfranchised, the disillusioned and those who don't trust in politicians and their politics. Oddly enough those are not necessarily the poorest of them all; academics as well as business men chose not to participate, not to do their duty. The problem is on the inside, Germans don't seem to believe in what politicians - right or left - preach: the great bogus truth of Germany as Europe's engine, the reluctant hegemon. According to Mrs. Merkel's spin-doctors and campaign managers everything is great, nothing needs to change.

While the upper echelons of the party hierarchy are still debating about taking part in Mrs. Merkel's new government, the roots in both SPD and the Green Party seem to be reluctant to play the game. She decimated the SPD voters in 2009 and eradicated the FDP quite soundly. After 2013 the exodus of the premier league in all political parties has begun, Rösler and Brüderle (FDP), Trittin and Roth (Green Party), even Steinbrück (SPD) stepped down after the "disastrous" results. They are putting on a brave front, every ending is a beginning - they can "rise from the ruins" to "face the future" - granted a different future filled with riveting debates about very concrete issues like a lorry toll for foreigners (against existing EU-law), minimum wages, the transition to renewable energy, age-related poverty etc. as well as relatively abstract subjects such as social justice.

Merkelism and its consequences 

Of course Merkel's "everything is perfect"-strategy seems to have won her the election. Then again the caricaturists, satirists and comedians up and down Germany have found their show, Merkel as the butt of their jokes. The ignorant voter as her enabler and the cabaret thrives. In Merkel's illusion of Germany nothing has to change. The government just needs to throw the voters that have become soft by mediocrity of critical stimuli in the media a bone and you'll get re-elected. The strategy seems to work, at least for the CDU/CSU for their coalition partners - not so much. They tend to become scapegoats in the political roulette. But the masses are gullible, easily led astray and infected by the Merkelist doctrine, that the impoverishment of quite a large number of her subjects is acceptable.

In any case we need to be damn careful that the Soylent Green solution doesn't eat its children.

Spieltheorie: Tipps for gelingende Koalitionsverhandlungen FAZ